ANALISIS PENGARUH ARUS MODAL SWASTA JANGKA PENDEK TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DAN LAJU INFLASI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2010.Q1-2024.Q1
Keywords:
Arus Modal Swasta Jangka Pendek, Nilai Tukar Rupiah dan Inflasi
Abstract
Tujuan penelitian untuk menganalis pengaruh arus modal swasta jangka pendek terhadap nilai tukar rupiah dan laju inflasi Indonesia selama periode 2010.Q1-2024.Q1 menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data sekunder time series kuartalan. Selain itu, menguji pengaruh variabel kontrol, yaitu tingkat suku bunga Sertifikat Bank Indonesia, jumlah uang beredar (M2), nilai ekspor dan impor. Model ekonomitrika yang digunakan adalah persamaan simultan dengan regresi linear berganda dua tahap (Two Stage Least Squares). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa arus modal swasta jangka pendek memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah dan laju inflasi di Indonesia. Selain itu, variabel kontrol yang digunakan juga menunjukkan pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap variabel dependen. Temuan ini menekankan perlunya manajemen arus modal yang hati-hati untuk memastikan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang berkelanjutan dan memiliki konsekuensi signifikan bagi para pembuat kebijakan saat mereka mengembangkan rencana untuk menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar dan mengendalikan inflasi.
References
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Rahmadani, D., & Rian Hlmawan. (2024). Pengaruh Volume Uang Elektronik , Suku Bunga Kredit Konsumsi dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia. 3(3), 13–23.
Rakhmat, Warjiyo, P., & Sadli, A. M. (2022). The Influence of Exchange Rate and Foreign Capital on the Performance of Inflation Targeting Framework in Indonesia. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 17(5), 1585–1592. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.170523
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Shahmi, M. A., Irawan, R., Yunadia, S. A., Tamara, F., Nengsi, S., & Oktafannisa, S. (2024). Optimalisasi Investasi Asing Langsung dan Keterbukaan Ekonomi terhadap Nilai Tukar Efektif Riil di Indonesia. 09, 41–49.
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Umam, M., & Isabela, I. (2018). Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga dan Nilai Kurs Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia. KABILAH : Journal of Social Community, 3(2), 202–209. https://doi.org/10.35127/kbl.v3i2.3409
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Yasa, P. S., Damayanti, E., Farrel, M. D., Rizaldi, M., & Sigalingging, K. (2024). The Influence of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates on Inflation in Indonesia. Economic: Journal Economic and Business, 3(3), 146–150. https://doi.org/10.56495/ejeb.v3i3.611
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Aprileven, P. H. (2017). Pengaruh Faktor Ekonomi Terhadap Inflasi Yang Dimediasi Oleh Jumlah Uang Beredar. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 4(1), 32–41.
Barguellil, A., Ben-Salha, O., & Zmami, M. (2018). Exchange rate volatility and economic growth. Journal of Economic Integration, 33(2), 1302–1336. https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2018.33.2.1302
Blanchard, O., & David R.Johnson. (2021). Macroeconomics (8th ed.). Pearson Education Limited.
Bonizzi, B. (2015). Capital Market Inflation in Emerging Markets: the Cases of Brazil and South Korea. PSL Quarterly Review, 68(273), 115–150. http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/11989
Bublyk, Y. (2021). Measures of Financial Regulators in the Field of International Capital Flows Control. Economics & Education, 6(2), 58–62. https://doi.org/10.30525/2500-946x/2021-2-10
Combes, J.-L., Kinda, T., & Plane, P. (2011). Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and the Real Exchange Rate; by Jean-Louis Combes, Tidiane Kinda, and Patrick Plane; IMF Working Paper 11/9; January 1, 2011.
Efremidze, L., Kim, S., Sula, O., & Willett, T. (2017). The relationships among capital flow surges, reversals and sudden stops. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 9, 0. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-03-2017-0021
Erdal, B., & Pinar, A. (2015). The Effects of Short-Term Capital Flows on Exchange Rates in Intermediate and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes: Empirical Evidence from Turkey. International Business Research, 8(10), 93–101. https://doi.org/10.5539/ibr.v8n10p93
Fernanda Nayottama, M. R., & Andrian, T. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh, Neraca Transaksi Berjalan, Jumlah Uang Beredar, Inflasi, Suku Bunga, dan Utang Luar Negeri Terhadap Nilai Tukar di Indonesia. Jurnal Impresi Indonesia, 1(12), 1289–1308. https://doi.org/10.58344/jii.v1i12.738
Fidia, Y., TRI, Y. W., & Daryono, S. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh JUB , Suku Bunga , Dan Nilai Tukar. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 8(2), 265–277.
Fitriyah, F., Rahmawati, F., & Narmaditya, B. S. (2021). Macroeconomic Indicators and Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis Dan Kewirausahaan, 10(1), 91. https://doi.org/10.26418/jebik.v10i1.44272
Forbes, K., Hjortsoe, I., & Nenova, T. (2016). INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE ON SHOCK-DEPENDENT EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH. NBER Working Paper No. 27746, 1–23.
Forbes, K., & Warnock, F. (2021). Capital Flow Waves—or Ripples? Extreme Capital Flow Movements Since the Crisis. Journal of International Money and Finance, 116, 102394. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102394
Han, H., & Lin, S. (2019). Government size and regional capital flows in China. Sustainability (Switzerland), 11(23). https://doi.org/10.3390/su11236653
Hardiyanto, P. (2023). Independensi Kebijakan Moneter dalam Jangka Pendek: Kasus Indonesia. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Forum Manajemen Indonesia - e-ISSN 3026-4499, 1, 311–319. https://doi.org/10.47747/snfmi.v1i.1510
Irwandi, Regina, & Rahmizal, M. (2023). Factors Affecting The Rupiah Exchange Rate Over The United States Dollar in Indonesia. Economics and Business Journal (ECBIS), 2(1), 69–76. https://doi.org/10.47353/ecbis.v2i1.107
Jamal, A., Lamba, A. J., & Rai, S. (2024). Unraveling Complexity Global Capital Flow Determinants (pp. 321–370). https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-5303-5.ch015
Jamal, A. Z., & Khairkhwa, and M. (2024). Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Inflation in Afghanistan. Integrated Journal for Research in Arts and Humanities, Volume-4 I.
Jayasuriya, S., & Leu, S. (2017). Volatile Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Performance in Indonesia: An SVAR Analysis. Economic Papers, 36(2), 135–155. https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12168
Kalalo, H. Y. T., Rotinsulu, T. O., & Maramis, M. T. B. (2016). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang MempKalalo, Harjunata Y.T. Rotinsulu, Tri Oldy Maramis, Mauna Th. Bengaruhi Inflasi. Jurnal Berkala Ilmiah Efisiensi, 16(01), 706–717.
Krugman, P. R. and O. M. (2018). International Trade Theory of Policy (11th ed.). pearson pendidikan terbatas.
Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M. J. (2022). International Economics: Theory & Policy. Pearson. https://books.google.co.id/books?id=O2huzgEACAAJ
Laili, A. N., & Wahyuningsih, D. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Neraca Perdagangan, Suku Bunga dan Arus Modal Masuk terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Akuntansi Dan Manajemen, 21(2), 88. https://doi.org/10.19184/jeam.v21i2.33642
Landa, T. N., & Tri Sukirno Putro, W. H. (2017). PENGARUH JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR DAN SUKU BUNGA BI TERHADAP KURS RUPIAH DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2005-2014. Procedia Manufacturing, 1(22 Jan), 1–17.
Lenz, J. (2018). Macroeconomic-Effects-on-the-Modeling-of-Private-Capital-Cash-Flows. October. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.12137.34401
Lilian, M., Dennis, K., & Mwangi, P. (2024). Effect of Short-Term Capital Flows on Real Exchange Rate in Kenya. InLilian, M., Dennis, K., & Mwangi, P. (2024). Effect of Short-Term Capital Flows on Real Exchange Rate in Kenya. International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research, 09, 2687–2703. Https://Doi.Org/10.46609/IJSSER.2024.V09i08.008ternational Jour, 09, 2687–2703. https://doi.org/10.46609/IJSSER.2024.v09i08.008
Manihuruk1, F. E., * D. S., , Yohana Feby1, J., & Marbun1. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor, dan Jumlah Uang Beredar di Indonesia Terhadap Kurs Rupiah/USD. Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi, 1(3), 98–107.
Muttaqien, M., Dahliana, & Neni triana. (2023). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Jumlah Uang Beredar dan Kegiatan Ekspor Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia Tahun 2017-2022. JAKTABANGUN: Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Pembangunan, 9(2), 113–123. https://doi.org/10.56857/jaktabangun.v9i2.169
N. Gregory Mankiw. (2019). Macroeconomics (10th Editi). Worth Publishers.
Natsir, I., & Triastuti, E. (2024). The Role Of The Indonesian Government In Increasing The Quantity And Quality Of Sharia Economic Human Resources. Jurnal Indonesia Sosial Teknologi, 5(6), 3025–3038. https://doi.org/10.59141/jist.v5i6.1175
Octaviani, ME, D. (2017). Analisis Simultan Antara Aliran Modal, Nilai Tukar Dan Inflasi Di Indonesia Periode 2000.01 – 2012.09. Media Ekonomi, 21(1), 42–70. https://doi.org/10.25105/me.v21i1.792
Odo, A., Urama, N., & Odionye, J. (2024). Volatile capital flows and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: the role of transparency. Empirical Economics, 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-024-02592-1
Opc, M., & Ramachandran, M. (2018). Capital flows and exchange rate volatility: experience of emerging economies. Indian Economic Review, 53. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41775-018-0031-1
Pardasia, S., & Syafri. (2024). Analisis Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar. Jurnal Ekonomi Trisakti, 4(1), 187–196. https://doi.org/10.25105/jet.v4i1.18694
Rahmadani, D., & Rian Hlmawan. (2024). Pengaruh Volume Uang Elektronik , Suku Bunga Kredit Konsumsi dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia. 3(3), 13–23.
Rakhmat, Warjiyo, P., & Sadli, A. M. (2022). The Influence of Exchange Rate and Foreign Capital on the Performance of Inflation Targeting Framework in Indonesia. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 17(5), 1585–1592. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.170523
Sabtiadi, K., & Kartikasari, D. (2018). Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor Impor Terhadap Nilai Tukar Usd Dan Sgd. JURNAL AKUNTANSI, EKONOMI Dan MANAJEMEN BISNIS, 6(2), 135–141. https://doi.org/10.30871/jaemb.v6i2.629
Sari, S. P., & Panggabean, M. (2024). The Influence of the Exchange Rate, Money Supply, Exports, Bank Indonesia’s Reference Interest Rates and the Price of Gold on Inflation in Indonesia. Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Studies, Volume 07.
Shahmi, M. A., Irawan, R., Yunadia, S. A., Tamara, F., Nengsi, S., & Oktafannisa, S. (2024). Optimalisasi Investasi Asing Langsung dan Keterbukaan Ekonomi terhadap Nilai Tukar Efektif Riil di Indonesia. 09, 41–49.
Sumantri, V. D. S., & Fadli, F. (2022). Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables Affecting Inflation and Exchange Rates. Integrated Journal of Business and Economics, 6(2), 102. https://doi.org/10.33019/ijbe.v6i2.417
Umam, M., & Isabela, I. (2018). Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga dan Nilai Kurs Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia. KABILAH : Journal of Social Community, 3(2), 202–209. https://doi.org/10.35127/kbl.v3i2.3409
Wahyudi, H. (2024). The Influence of Long-term and Short-term Variables on the Oil Prices, Money Supply, Policy Rates, Output Gaps, Rupiah Exchange Rate and Gross Fixed Capital Formation on Inflation in Indonesia. WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS, 21, 944–956. https://doi.org/10.37394/23207.2024.21.79
Widyaningrum, T., & Lubis, F. R. A. (2024). Pengaruh Variabel Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah di Indonesia. Jurnal Genesis Indonesia, 3(01), 49–60. https://doi.org/10.56741/jgi.v3i01.494
Wu, N. (2018). Analysis on the Impact of Short-Term International Capital Flows on Chinese Stock Market on the Basis of VAR Model. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 10(8), 77. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v10n8p77
Yasa, P. S., Damayanti, E., Farrel, M. D., Rizaldi, M., & Sigalingging, K. (2024). The Influence of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates on Inflation in Indonesia. Economic: Journal Economic and Business, 3(3), 146–150. https://doi.org/10.56495/ejeb.v3i3.611
Zardoub, A., & Abed, R. El. (2019). Short-and long-term effects of financial flows on economic growth. Journal of Economic Integration, 34(4), 705–724. https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2019.34.4.705
Published
2024-11-26
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Copyright (c) 2024 Irnawanti Irnawanti, Taufiq Chaidir
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