PERAN OVERCONFIDENCE DALAM PENGAMBILAN RISIKO INVESTASI DI PASAR MODAL INDONESIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31539/costing.v7i6.14029Keywords:
Overconfidence, Pengambilan Risiko Investasi, Kinerja Investasi, Perilaku KeuanganAbstract
Penelitian ini menganalisis peran overconfidence dalam pengambilan risiko investasi di pasar modal Indonesia. Overconfidence, yang merupakan bias psikologis berupa keyakinan berlebihan terhadap kemampuan dan prediksi diri, dapat memengaruhi perilaku investasi secara signifikan. Dengan pendekatan kuantitatif melalui survei terhadap 500 investor individu, penelitian ini menemukan bahwa overconfidence memiliki hubungan positif yang signifikan dengan pengambilan risiko investasi, tetapi berdampak negatif terhadap kinerja investasi. Hasil penelitian juga menunjukkan bahwa faktor demografis, seperti usia, pendidikan, dan pengalaman investasi, memoderasi hubungan antara overconfidence dan kinerja investasi. Temuan ini memberikan kontribusi penting dalam literatur keuangan perilaku, dengan implikasi praktis berupa peningkatan literasi keuangan, pengelolaan bias psikologis, dan strategi investasi yang lebih efektif.
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Afriani, D. and Halmawati, H. (2019) ‘Pengaruh Cognitive Dissonance Bias, Overconfidence Bias Dan Herding Bias Terhadap Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi’, Jurnal Eksplorasi Akuntansi, 1(4), pp. 1650–1665.
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Artha, U. and Sukadana, I.W. (2024) ‘The Effect of Over-Confidence on Jiwasraya’s 2017-2020 Payment Defaults’, AURELIA: Jurnal Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Indonesia, 3(2), pp. 944–957.
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Barber, B.M. and Odean, T. (2001) ‘The internet and the investor’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(1), pp. 41–54.
BATUBARA, A. (2016) ‘Pengaruh overconfidence dan risk tolerance terhadap pengambilan keputusan investasi’. STIE PERBANAS SURABAYA.
De Bondt, W.F.M. and Thaler, R.H. (1987) ‘Further evidence on investor overreaction and stock market seasonality’, The Journal of finance, 42(3), pp. 557–581.
Budiman, I., Maulana, Z. and Kamal, S. (2021) ‘Pengaruh literacy financial, experienced regret, dan overconfidence terhadap pengambilan keputusan investasi di pasar modal’, Jurnal Manajemen Strategi dan Aplikasi Bisnis, 4(2), pp. 321–330.
Camerer, C. and Lovallo, D. (1999) ‘Overconfidence and excess entry: An experimental approach’, American economic review, 89(1), pp. 306–318.
Clarkson, P.M. et al. (2008) ‘Revisiting the relation between environmental performance and environmental disclosure: An empirical analysis’, Accounting, organizations and society, 33(4–5), pp. 303–327.
Dewi, F.S., Syaifuddin, N. and Arifin, A.H. (2024) ‘Meta-Analysis On Overconfidence In Investment Performance Evidence From Global Markets’, Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING), 7(5), pp. 102–105.
Gama, A.W.S., Astiti, N.P.Y. and Mitariani, N.W.E. (2023) ‘Biased Behavior and Stock Investment Decisions of Investors in Bali, Indonesia’, Matrik: Jurnal Manajemen, Strategi Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan, 17(2), pp. 123–135.
Ganesh, R. et al. (2022) ‘INVESTORS’OVERCONFIDENCE IN THE STOCK MARKET’, Copernican Journal of Finance & Accounting, 11(4), pp. 107–123.
Glaser, M. and Weber, M. (2007) ‘Overconfidence and trading volume’, The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 32, pp. 1–36.
Hair, J. and Alamer, A. (2022) ‘Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) in second language and education research: Guidelines using an applied example’, Research Methods in Applied Linguistics, 1(3). Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rmal.2022.100027.
Hair Jr, J.F. et al. (2014) ‘Partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM): An emerging tool in business research’, European business review, 26(2), pp. 106–121.
Hardi, I. et al. (2024) ‘Business Confidence in Indonesia: Which Macroeconomic Factors Have Long-Term Impact?’, Indatu Journal of Management and Accounting, 2(1), pp. 40–54.
Indradjaja, N. and Wijaya, S. (2024) ‘Law and Regulation as Safeguards for Investors Against Crime in Capital Market Sector’, Neoclassical Legal Review: Journal of Law and Contemporary Issues, 3(1), pp. 40–47.
Inghelbrecht, K. and Tedde, M. (2024) ‘Overconfidence, financial literacy and excessive trading’, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 219, pp. 152–195.
Kaban, L.M. and Linata, E. (2024) ‘The Risk Perception as a Mediator Between Herding and Overconfidence on Investment Decision by Gen Z in Indonesia’, MEC-J (Management and Economics Journal), 8(1), pp. 1–14.
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Kartika, N. and Iramani, R. (2013) ‘Pengaruh overconfidence, experience, emotion terhadap risk perception dan risk attitude pada investor pasar modal di Surabaya’, Journal of Business & Banking, 3(2), pp. 177–188.
Kurniasari, F. and Utomo, P. (2022) ‘The Key Determinants of Financial Risk Tolerance Among Gen-Z Investors: Propensity for Regret, Propensity for Overconfidence and Income Level’, in Eurasia Business and Economics Society Conference. Springer, pp. 289–298.
Mahardhika, M.D. and Asandimitra, N. (2023) ‘Pengaruh overconfidence, risk tolerance, return, financial literacy, financial technology terhadap keputusan investasi yang dilakukan mahasiswa Surabaya’, Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, pp. 602–613.
Mahardika, V.A. (2017) ‘Pengaruh overconfidence, risk tolerance dan faktor demografi terhadap pengambilankeputusan investasi masyarakat gresik’. STIE PERBANAS SURABAYA.
Paramita, M.P. and Wirakusuma, M.G. (2024) ‘How Investment Behaviour of Young Investors? A Case Study on The Indonesia Stock Exchange’, World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 23(1), pp. 959–976.
Pradikasari, E. and Isbanah, Y. (2018) ‘Pengaruh financial literacy, illusion of control, overconfidence, risk tolerance, dan risk perception terhadap keputusan investasi pada mahasiswa di Kota Surabaya’, Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen (JIM), 6(4), pp. 424–434.
Rahman, F. and Dewi, S. (2023) ‘Pengaruh Overconfidence, Gambler’s Fallacy dan Loss Aversion Terhadap Keputusan Investasi di Sumatera Utara’, Jurnal Riset Akuntansi dan Bisnis, 23(1), pp. 54–62.
SIREGAR, E.S. and SH, M.H.D.A.N.I.C.A.Z.S. (2023) ‘Kebijakan Investasi di Beberapa Negara ASEAN’, Jurnal Keadilan, 3(2 Juli).
Statman, M., Thorley, S. and Vorkink, K. (2006) ‘Investor overconfidence and trading volume’, The Review of Financial Studies, 19(4), pp. 1531–1565.
Sugiyono, P.D. (2010) ‘Metode Peneliian’, Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, Dan R&D [Preprint].
Tanusdjaja, H. (2018) ‘KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI INVESTOR INDIVIDU BERDASARKAN KOMPETENSI, OVERCONFIDENCE, DAN PENDIDIKAN.’, Jurnal Muara Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 2(1), pp. 234–244.
Wijoyo, F. and Arifin, A.Z. (2024) ‘OVERCONFIDENCE BIAS IN INVESTMENT DECISIONS ON INDONESIAN STOCK MARKET’, International Journal of Application on Economics and Business, 2(2), pp. 3430–3439.
Afriani, D. and Halmawati, H. (2019) ‘Pengaruh Cognitive Dissonance Bias, Overconfidence Bias Dan Herding Bias Terhadap Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi’, Jurnal Eksplorasi Akuntansi, 1(4), pp. 1650–1665.
Anggirani, N. (2017) ‘Pengaruh Risk Tolerance, overconfidence, dan Literasi Keuangan Terhadap Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi Masyarakat Surabaya’. STIE PERBANAS SURABAYA.
Artha, U. and Sukadana, I.W. (2024) ‘The Effect of Over-Confidence on Jiwasraya’s 2017-2020 Payment Defaults’, AURELIA: Jurnal Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Indonesia, 3(2), pp. 944–957.
Bangun, V.L. (2020) ‘Pengaruh Literasi Keuangan, Persepsi Risiko dan Overconfidence terhadap Keputusan Investasi (Studi Kasus pada Generasi Milenial di Yogyakarta)’.
Barber, B.M. and Odean, T. (2001) ‘The internet and the investor’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(1), pp. 41–54.
BATUBARA, A. (2016) ‘Pengaruh overconfidence dan risk tolerance terhadap pengambilan keputusan investasi’. STIE PERBANAS SURABAYA.
De Bondt, W.F.M. and Thaler, R.H. (1987) ‘Further evidence on investor overreaction and stock market seasonality’, The Journal of finance, 42(3), pp. 557–581.
Budiman, I., Maulana, Z. and Kamal, S. (2021) ‘Pengaruh literacy financial, experienced regret, dan overconfidence terhadap pengambilan keputusan investasi di pasar modal’, Jurnal Manajemen Strategi dan Aplikasi Bisnis, 4(2), pp. 321–330.
Camerer, C. and Lovallo, D. (1999) ‘Overconfidence and excess entry: An experimental approach’, American economic review, 89(1), pp. 306–318.
Clarkson, P.M. et al. (2008) ‘Revisiting the relation between environmental performance and environmental disclosure: An empirical analysis’, Accounting, organizations and society, 33(4–5), pp. 303–327.
Dewi, F.S., Syaifuddin, N. and Arifin, A.H. (2024) ‘Meta-Analysis On Overconfidence In Investment Performance Evidence From Global Markets’, Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING), 7(5), pp. 102–105.
Gama, A.W.S., Astiti, N.P.Y. and Mitariani, N.W.E. (2023) ‘Biased Behavior and Stock Investment Decisions of Investors in Bali, Indonesia’, Matrik: Jurnal Manajemen, Strategi Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan, 17(2), pp. 123–135.
Ganesh, R. et al. (2022) ‘INVESTORS’OVERCONFIDENCE IN THE STOCK MARKET’, Copernican Journal of Finance & Accounting, 11(4), pp. 107–123.
Glaser, M. and Weber, M. (2007) ‘Overconfidence and trading volume’, The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 32, pp. 1–36.
Hair, J. and Alamer, A. (2022) ‘Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) in second language and education research: Guidelines using an applied example’, Research Methods in Applied Linguistics, 1(3). Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rmal.2022.100027.
Hair Jr, J.F. et al. (2014) ‘Partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM): An emerging tool in business research’, European business review, 26(2), pp. 106–121.
Hardi, I. et al. (2024) ‘Business Confidence in Indonesia: Which Macroeconomic Factors Have Long-Term Impact?’, Indatu Journal of Management and Accounting, 2(1), pp. 40–54.
Indradjaja, N. and Wijaya, S. (2024) ‘Law and Regulation as Safeguards for Investors Against Crime in Capital Market Sector’, Neoclassical Legal Review: Journal of Law and Contemporary Issues, 3(1), pp. 40–47.
Inghelbrecht, K. and Tedde, M. (2024) ‘Overconfidence, financial literacy and excessive trading’, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 219, pp. 152–195.
Kaban, L.M. and Linata, E. (2024) ‘The Risk Perception as a Mediator Between Herding and Overconfidence on Investment Decision by Gen Z in Indonesia’, MEC-J (Management and Economics Journal), 8(1), pp. 1–14.
Kano, M., Muradoglu, Y.G. and Olukuru, J. (no date) ‘Overconfidence in Financial Decision Making: Comparative Insights from Individual and Group Decision-Making’, Available at SSRN 4854530 [Preprint].
Kartika, N. and Iramani, R. (2013) ‘Pengaruh overconfidence, experience, emotion terhadap risk perception dan risk attitude pada investor pasar modal di Surabaya’, Journal of Business & Banking, 3(2), pp. 177–188.
Kurniasari, F. and Utomo, P. (2022) ‘The Key Determinants of Financial Risk Tolerance Among Gen-Z Investors: Propensity for Regret, Propensity for Overconfidence and Income Level’, in Eurasia Business and Economics Society Conference. Springer, pp. 289–298.
Mahardhika, M.D. and Asandimitra, N. (2023) ‘Pengaruh overconfidence, risk tolerance, return, financial literacy, financial technology terhadap keputusan investasi yang dilakukan mahasiswa Surabaya’, Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, pp. 602–613.
Mahardika, V.A. (2017) ‘Pengaruh overconfidence, risk tolerance dan faktor demografi terhadap pengambilankeputusan investasi masyarakat gresik’. STIE PERBANAS SURABAYA.
Paramita, M.P. and Wirakusuma, M.G. (2024) ‘How Investment Behaviour of Young Investors? A Case Study on The Indonesia Stock Exchange’, World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 23(1), pp. 959–976.
Pradikasari, E. and Isbanah, Y. (2018) ‘Pengaruh financial literacy, illusion of control, overconfidence, risk tolerance, dan risk perception terhadap keputusan investasi pada mahasiswa di Kota Surabaya’, Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen (JIM), 6(4), pp. 424–434.
Rahman, F. and Dewi, S. (2023) ‘Pengaruh Overconfidence, Gambler’s Fallacy dan Loss Aversion Terhadap Keputusan Investasi di Sumatera Utara’, Jurnal Riset Akuntansi dan Bisnis, 23(1), pp. 54–62.
SIREGAR, E.S. and SH, M.H.D.A.N.I.C.A.Z.S. (2023) ‘Kebijakan Investasi di Beberapa Negara ASEAN’, Jurnal Keadilan, 3(2 Juli).
Statman, M., Thorley, S. and Vorkink, K. (2006) ‘Investor overconfidence and trading volume’, The Review of Financial Studies, 19(4), pp. 1531–1565.
Sugiyono, P.D. (2010) ‘Metode Peneliian’, Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, Dan R&D [Preprint].
Tanusdjaja, H. (2018) ‘KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI INVESTOR INDIVIDU BERDASARKAN KOMPETENSI, OVERCONFIDENCE, DAN PENDIDIKAN.’, Jurnal Muara Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 2(1), pp. 234–244.
Wijoyo, F. and Arifin, A.Z. (2024) ‘OVERCONFIDENCE BIAS IN INVESTMENT DECISIONS ON INDONESIAN STOCK MARKET’, International Journal of Application on Economics and Business, 2(2), pp. 3430–3439.
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2024-12-29
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