KERANGKA MANAJEMEN RISIKO DUA METODE UNTUK PROYEK COAL-TO-SNG: STUDI KASUS PADA BUMN SEKTOR ENERGI BUMN DI INDONESIA

Authors

Latif Alfiyan Zuhri Institut Teknologi Bandung
Yunieta Anny Nainggolan Institut Teknologi Bandung

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31539/costing.v8i3.15006

Keywords:

Synthetic Natural Gas (SNG), risk management, ISO 31000:2018, risk matrix, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Abstract

PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) menghadapi tantangan terkait penurunan permintaan dan harga batubara secara global serta peraturan lingkungan yang lebih ketat. Untuk mempertahankan bisnisnya, PTBA menginisiasi proyek Coal to Synthetic Natural Gas (SNG) sebagai bagian dari strategi diversifikasi bisnis. Namun, proyek ini menghadapi tantangan dan ketidakpastian. Studi ini mengeksplorasi risiko yang terkait dengan proyek Coal-to-SNG dengan menggunakan pendekatan metode kombinasi dari Risk Matrix dan Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) melalui wawancara dan kuesioner. Sebanyak 38 risiko diidentifikasi terkait dengan proyek di beberapa kategori. Tujuh risiko prioritas utama disorot termasuk ketidakpastian kebijakan/peraturan, ketidakstabilan geopolitik, pemilihan teknologi, kesulitan pendanaan proyek, penurunan harga LNG, pelanggaran tata kelola perusahaan yang baik (GCG), serta penundaan perizinan. Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa metode yang berbeda dapat memberikan perspektif yang berbeda, karena sifat subjektif Matriks Risiko sebagai pendekatan kualitatif berdasarkan kemungkinan dan konsekuensi versus AHP yang lebih kuantitatif berdasarkan pembobotan perbandingan berpasangan. Kombinasi kedua metode tersebut meningkatkan akurasi dan keandalan analisis sesuai dengan prinsip ISO 31000:2018. Penelitian ini berkontribusi secara teoritis dengan menghadirkan pendekatan metode kombinasi dari Risk Matrix (kualitatif) dan Analytical Hierarchy Process (kuantitatif) dalam kerangka kerja ISO 31000:2018 yang dapat direplikasi dan diadaptasi dalam proyek serupa, terutama proyek hilirisasi batubara atau transisi energi.

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