ANALISIS DETERMINAN JEJAK EKOLOGI DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN ARDL

Authors

Selviana Diah Utami Universitas Negeri Semarang
Dwi Rahmayani Universitas Negeri Semarang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31539/costing.v8i3.15811

Keywords:

ARDL, Energi terbarukan, Environmental Kuznets Curve, Jejak Ekologi, Pembangunan Berkelanjutan.

Abstract

Tekanan lingkungan meningkat sebagai akibat dari pertumbuhan ekonomi dan urbanisasi di Indonesia menunjukkan perlunya evaluasi terhadap arah pembangunan berkelanjutan. Penelitian ini mengkaji hubungan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi, urbanisasi, konsumsi energi terbarukan, dan penanaman modal asing terhadap jejak ekologi, dengan mempertimbangkan validitas hipotesis Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) dan pollution haven. Teori EKC dan pendekatan kuantitatif digunakan dalam penelitian ini. Analisis menggunakan data time series Indonesia tahun 1991–2022 dengan metode regresi Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa PDB per kapita secara signifikan dapat meningkatkan jejak ekologi dalam jangka pendek dan panjang, sementara PDB per kapita kuadrat menunjukan kurva berbentuk U terbalik, sehingga EKC terbukti di Indonesia. Urbanisasi juga meningkatkan jejak ekologi secara signifikan, sedangkan konsumsi energi terbarukan menurunkan jejak ekologi secara signifikan. PMA berpengaruh positif dan tidak signifikan secara statistik, sehingga hipotesis pollution haven terbukti. Temuan ini mengimplikasikan pentingnya kebijakan yang mengarah pada penguatan ekonomi hijau, transisi energi bersih, serta tata kelola urban yang berkelanjutan. Pemerintah perlu menyesuaikan strategi pembangunan dengan prinsip ekologi untuk menekan dampak lingkungan jangka panjang.

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