PENGARUH IMPOR PAKAIAN JADI DAN VOLATILITAS HARGA KAPAS GLOBAL TERHADAP KINERJA PRODUKSI INDUSTRI TEKSTIL DAN PRODUK TEKSTIL INDONESIA PERIODE 2010–2024

Gilberd Corneolioes; Tria Apriliana

doi:10.31539/qcxa7b37

Authors

Gilberd Corneolioes Universitas Widyatama
Tria Apriliana Universitas Widyatama

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31539/qcxa7b37

Keywords:

Impor Pakaian Jadi, Volatilitas Harga Kapas, Kinerja Produksi, Industri TPT, Regresi Linier Berganda

Abstract

Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh nilai impor pakaian jadi dan volatilitas harga kapas global terhadap kinerja produksi industri Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil (TPT) Indonesia periode 2010–2024. Kinerja produksi diukur menggunakan Indeks Produksi Industri Besar dan Sedang (IBS) subsektor pakaian jadi, sedangkan tekanan dari sisi permintaan diwakili oleh nilai impor kelompok HS 61 dan HS 62 (UN Comtrade), dan tekanan sisi biaya diwakili oleh Coefficient of Variation (CoV) Cotton A Index (World Bank). Pendekatan kuantitatif dengan regresi linier berganda data runtun waktu tahunan diestimasi menggunakan EViews 13. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa impor pakaian jadi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kinerja produksi (β = 0,2754; p = 0,009), sedangkan volatilitas harga kapas tidak terbukti signifikan (β = −0,015; p = 0,678). Secara simultan kedua variabel berpengaruh signifikan (F = 6,626; p = 0,012) dengan koefisien determinasi 52,48 persen. Arah positif impor mencerminkan integrasi struktural industri dalam jaringan Global Value Chain, bukan relasi substitusi. Temuan ini menyarankan kebijakan yang memperkuat integrasi rantai nilai dan diversifikasi bahan baku, bukan semata pembatasan impor.

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