PENGARUH NILAI CPO, NILAI TUKAR, DAN GDP TERHADAP EKSPOR BIODIESEL INDONESIA DENGAN DAYA SAING SEBAGAI VARIABEL INTERVENING PADA PENERAPAN COUNTERVAILING DUTY UNI EROPA TAHUN 2020 – 2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31539/0gh2am63Keywords:
Nilai CPO, Nilai Tukar, GDP, Daya Saing, Ekspor Biodiesel.Abstract
Ekspor biodiesel Indonesia ke Uni Eropa menghadapi tekanan sejak diberlakukannya kebijakan Countervailing Duty (CVD) oleh Uni Eropa melalui Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2029/2092, yang menaikkan bea masuk bidoiesel Indonesia sehingga berpotensi menurunkan daya saing dan kinerja ekspornya ke pasar global. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh nilai Crude Palm Oil (CPO), nilai tukar, dan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) terhadap ekspor biodiesel Indonesia, dengan daya saing sebagai variabel intervening, pada periode penerapan CVD tahun 2020-2024. Kajian ini didasarkan pada teori perdagangan internasional, teori subsidi dan CVD, teori nilai tukar, serta konsep daya saing yang diukur melalui indikator Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA). Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode analisis jalur (path analysis) dan diolah menggunakan SPSS. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder bulanan periode Januari 2020-Desember 2024 (60 obeservasi) yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik, Bank Indonesia, World Bank, dan UN Comtrade melalui teknik dokumentasi dengan purposive sampling. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa nilai CPO, nilai tukar, dan GDP berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap daya saing; nilai CPO dan nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap ekspor biodiesel, sedangkan GDP tidak berpengaruh signifikan; dan daya saing berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap ekspor biodiesel. Uji Sobel membuktikan bahwa daya saing memediasi secara signifikan pengaruh nilai CPO dan nilai tukar terhadap ekspor, tetapi tidak memediasi pengaruh GDP. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa daya saing berperan sebagai mekanisme transmisi penting dalam menjelaskan dampak faktor makroekonomi terhadpa ekspor biodiesel Indonesia ditengah kebijakan proteksionisme Uni Eropa.
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