Faktor-Faktor Makroekonomi terhadap Indeks Harga Saham di Indonesia dan Singapura tahun 2015-2023

Authors

  • Adre Utami Universitas Pelita Harapan
  • Victor Soeindra

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31539/jomb.v7i2.14650

Abstract

This study analyzes the influence of macroeconomic variables on the stock price index in Indonesia (IHSG) and Singapore (STI) in the period 2015-2023. Using a quantitative approach, this study examines the influence of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and gold prices on the stock price index in both countries. The results of the study show that in Indonesia, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates and gold prices have a significant effect on the IHSG. Meanwhile, in Singapore, inflation, exchange rates and gold prices have a significant effect on the STI while interest rates do not have a significant effect on the STI. The advantage of this study is that it highlights the differences in the influence of macroeconomic factors on the stock market in two countries with different economic characteristics. The conclusion is that this study provides insight for policy makers in formulating market stabilization strategies and becomes a reference for investors in compiling a more resilient investment portfolio.

 Keywords: Stock Price Index, Inflation, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Gold Prices

References

Adrian, R., Hendayana, Y., & Sulistyowati, A. (2024). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga, dan Nilai Tukar terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan. 6(01), 180–193.

Akbar, M., Iqbal, F., & Noor, F. (2019). Bayesian analysis of dynamic linkages among gold price, stock prices, exchange rate and interest rate in Pakistan. Resources Policy, 62(June 2017), 154–164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.03.003

BASIT, A. (2020). Pengaruh Harga Emas Dan Minyak Dunia Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Periode 2016-2019. Jurnal Aplikasi Akuntansi, 5(1), 42–51. https://doi.org/10.29303/jaa.v5i1.89

Beckmann, J., Czudaj, R. L., & Arora, V. (2020). The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence. Energy Economics, 88, 1–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104772

Chai, J., Zhao, C., Hu, Y., & Zhang, Z. G. (2021). Structural analysis and forecast of gold price returns. Journal of Management Science and Engineering, 6(2), 135–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmse.2021.02.011

Channel News Asia. (2022, April 4). Commentary: Interest rate hikes and how Singapore homeowners can manage mortgage pain. Channel News Asia. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/interest-rate-singapore-federal-reserve-refinance-mortgage-2619631

El-Masry, A. A., & Badr, O. M. (2020). Stock market performance and foreign exchange market in Egypt: does 25th January revolution matter? International Journal of Emerging Markets, 16(6), 1048–1076. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-11-2017-0477

Feng, G. F., Yang, H. C., Gong, Q., & Chang, C. P. (2021). What is the exchange rate volatility response to COVID-19 and government interventions? Economic Analysis and Policy, 69, 705–719. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.01.018

Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy. The Role of Monetary Policy, March, 1–93. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781912281091

Ganani, A. R., Mandai, S., & Octaviani, D. (2023). Determinasi Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Ihsg. Jurnal Ekonomi Trisakti, 3(1), 279–290. https://doi.org/10.25105/jet.v3i1.15384

Ghazali, M. F., Lean, H. H., & Bahari, Z. (2020). Does gold investment offer protection against stock market losses? evidence from five countries. Singapore Economic Review, 65(2), 275–301. https://doi.org/10.1142/S021759081950036X

Ho, S. Y. (2019). Macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in South Africa. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 14(2), 322–342. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJoEM-09-2017-0341

Kamran Khan, M. (2019). Impact of Exchange Rate on Stock Returns in Shenzhen Stock Exchange: Analysis Through ARDL Approach. International Journal of Economics and Management, 1(2), 15–26.

Kurnia, A., Marlinah, L., & Mointi, R. (2021). Economy Deposit Journal (E-DJ ). 3(Idx).

Laidler, D. E. ., & Parkin, J. . (1977). Inflation: A Survey. 1973, 87–97. Https://Doi.Org/10.4018/978-1-5225-2154-9.Ch006

Lintner, J. (1965). Lintner1965a.pdf. In The Review of Economics and Statistics (Vol. 47, Issue 1, pp. 13–37).

Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77–91. https://doi.org/10.2307/2345307

Nasution, N. K., Soemitra, A., & Batubara, M. (2023). Analysis of The Influence of GDP, Exchange Rate, Gold Price, BI Rate, and IHSG on JII Islamic Investment Perspective. Indonesian Interdisciplinary Journal of Sharia Economics (IIJSE), 6(3), 1979–2007.

Nugraha, N. M., Novan, D., & Nugraha, S. (2021). The Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on the Volatility of Composite Price Stock Index: A Study on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Internasional Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, 24(01), 2507–2513. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348486434

Nwosa, P. I. (2021). Oil price, exchange rate and stock market performance during the COVID-19 pandemic: implications for TNCs and FDI inflow in Nigeria. Transnational Corporations Review, 13(1), 125–137. https://doi.org/10.1080/19186444.2020.1855957

Pradhan, R. P., Arvin, M. B., & Ghoshray, A. (2015). The dynamics of economic growth, oil prices, stock market depth, and other macroeconomic variables: Evidence from the G-20 countries. International Review of Financial Analysis, 39, 84–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2015.03.006

Rai, K., & Garg, B. (2022). Dynamic correlations and volatility spillovers between stock price and exchange rate in BRIICS economies: evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak period. Applied Economics Letters, 29(8), 738–745. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2021.1884835

Robiyanto, R., Santoso, M. A., Atahau, A. D. R., & Harijono, H. (2019). The Indonesia stock exchange and its dynamics: An analysis of the effect of macroeconomic variables. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 15(4), 59–73. https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/2019.15-4.5

Ross, S. A. (1976). The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing (Working Paper Version). Journal of Economic Theory, 13(3), 341–360. http://www.investmentanomalies.com/articles/031.pdf

Sadiq, M., Lin, C., Wang, K., & Minh, L. (2022). Commodity dynamism in the COVID-19 crisis: Are gold, oil, and stock commodity prices, symmetrical? January.

Setiawan, S. A. (2020). Does Macroeconomic Condition Matter for Stock Market? Evidence of Indonesia Stock Market Performance for 21 Years. The Indonesian Journal of Development Planning, 4(1), 27–39.

Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital Asset Prices: a Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425–442. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb02865.x

Šimáková, J., Stavárek, D., Pražák, T., & Ligocká, M. (2019). Macroeconomic factors and stock prices in the food and drink industry. British Food Journal, 121(7), 1627–1641. https://doi.org/10.1108/BFJ-12-2018-0839

Thomsen, L., Lai, K. P. Y., & Ponte, S. (2023). State action and inaction in the shaping of value and wealth entanglements: The role of Singapore in the global ‘gold chain.’ Environment and Planning A. https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518X231181128

Wong, H. T. (2017). Real exchange rate returns and real stock price returns. International Review of Economics and Finance, 49(16), 340–352. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.02.004

Yousaf, I., Bouri, E., Ali, S., & Azoury, N. (2021). Gold against Asian Stock Markets during the COVID-19 Outbreak. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(4). https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14040186

Downloads

Published

2025-04-19