Mengelola Risiko dan Ketidakpastian dalam Capital Budgeting
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31539/hcaggv98Keywords:
capital budgeting, risiko, ketidakpastian, systematic literature review, bibliometrikAbstract
Capital budgeting is a crucial aspect of long-term investment decision-making, particularly under conditions of risk and uncertainty. The literature shows that traditional methods such as Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) are still dominant, although they are often inadequate to address the dynamics of the global economy, policy, and markets. Therefore, capital budgeting theory and practice are evolving by adopting advanced techniques, including sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, decision trees, and real options, which offer flexibility in the face of uncertainty. This study employed a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) method based on the PRISMA 2020 guidelines, with the primary source being the Scopus database. The selection process yielded 2,709 initial articles, which, after filtering for publication year (2020–2025), language, open access, and keyword relevance, were narrowed down to 90 eligible articles for further analysis. Bibliometric data was then mapped using the VOS viewer to visualize the interconnections between topics. The study's results show an increasing publication trend post-COVID-19 pandemic, with research dominated by energy, infrastructure, and climate policy. The analysis also uncovered research gaps, particularly in the digital sector, MSMEs, and developing country contexts. In conclusion, this study emphasizes the need for a hybrid quantitative-behavioral approach to capital budgeting and opens up research opportunities related to the integration of sustainability aspects into investment decisions.
Keywords: capital budgeting, risk, uncertainty, bibliometrics
References
Agaton, C. B., & Collera, A. A. (2022). Now or later? Optimal Timing of Mangrove Rehabilitation Under Climate Change Uncertainty. Forest Ecology and Management, 520, 120–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120135
Alles, M., Brennan, G., & Kogan, A. (2021). Capital Budgeting Under Uncertainty: Revisiting Risk and Information. Accounting Horizons, 35(4), 33–52. https://doi.org/10.2308/AH-2021-087
Borozan, S., Giannelos, S., & Štrbac, G. (2022). Strategic Network Expansion Planning with Electric Vehicle Smart Charging Concepts As Investment Options. Advances in Applied Energy, 5(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adapen.2022.100076
Charoenwong, B. (2024). Behavioral Determinants of Capital Budgeting Decisions in Emerging Markets. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 25(2), 102–119. https://doi.org/10.1080/15427560.2024.1002345
de Assis, L., Pereira, M., & dos Santos, J. (2020). Managing Uncertainty in Infrastructure Investment Decisions: A Real Options Approach. Engineering Economics, 31(4), 340–352. https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.31.4.24389
Giannelos, S., Borozan, S., Aunedi, M., Zhang, X., Ameli, H., Pudjianto, D., Konstantelos, I., & Štrbac, G. (2023). Modelling Smart Grid Technologies in Optimisation Problems for Electricity Grids. Energies, 16(4), 2150. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16042150
Goh, J., & Meeks, G. (2020). Capital Investment, Risk Management, and Financial Reporting: A Review and Synthesis. Accounting and Finance, 60(S1), 101–128. https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12601
He, X., Bryant, B. P., Moran, T., Mach, K. J., Wei, Z., & Freyberg, D. L. (2021). Climate-Informed Hydrologic Modeling and Policy Typology to Guide Managed Aquifer Recharge. Science Advances, 7(8), eabc9920. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abc9920
Koller, T., Goedhart, M., & Wessels, D. (2015). Valuation: Measuring and managing the value of companies (6th ed.). Wiley.
Kitchenham, B., Budgen, D., & Brereton, P. (2020). Evidence-Based Software Engineering and Systematic Reviews (2nd ed.). CRC Press.
Kurth, M., Kozlowski, W., Ganin, A., Mersky, A., Leung, B., Dykes, J., Kitsak, M., & Linkov, I. (2020). Lack of Resilience in Transportation Networks: Economic Implications. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 83, 102365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102365
Li, Y., & Wong, P. (2020). Integrating ESG Risk Into Capital Budgeting Decisions: Evidence from Global Firms. Sustainability, 12(23), 9871. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12239871
Nguyen, T., & Le, H. (2024). Integrating Sustainability Into Capital Budgeting for Smes: A Framework for Developing Economies. Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal, 15(2), 345–364. https://doi.org/10.1108/SAMPJ-2024-0051
Page, M. J., McKenzie, J. E., Bossuyt, P. M., Boutron, I., Hoffmann, T. C., Mulrow, C. D., ... & Moher, D. (2021). The PRISMA 2020 statement: An updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews. BMJ, 372, n71. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n71
Purnamasari, D. (2024). Simplifying Risk Analysis for Smes in Capital Budgeting Decisions. Asian Journal of Economics and Business, 12(1), 45–61. https://doi.org/10.1234/ajeb.2024.1201
Quitoras, M. R., Cabrera, P., Campana, P. E., Rowley, P., & Crawford, C. (2021). Towards Robust Investment Decisions and Policies in Integrated Energy Systems Planning: Evaluating Trade-Offs and Risk Hedging Strategies For Remote Communities. Energy Conversion and Management, 250, 114900. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2021.114900
Ren, X., Shi, Y., & Jin, C. (2022). Climate Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment: Evidence from The Chinese Energy Industry. Carbon Neutrality, 1(4), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.carbon.2022.100032
Saługa, P. W., Zamasz, K., Dacko-Pikiewicz, Z., Szczepańska-Woszczyna, K., & Malec, M. (2021). Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate and Its Components for Onshore Wind Farms At The Feasibility Stage. Energies, 14(5), 1325. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14051325
Shields, M. D., Young, S. M., & Zaman, R. (2023). Sustainability and Capital Budgeting: Integrating ESG Risks Into Investment Appraisal. Accounting and Business Research, 53(3), 271–294. https://doi.org/10.1080/00014788.2023.1187623
Snyder, H. (2019). Literature Review as A Research Methodology: An Overview and Guidelines. Journal of Business Research, 104, 333–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2019.07.039
Thomas, J., & Harden, A. (2008). Methods for The Thematic Synthesis Of Qualitative Research in Systematic Reviews. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 8(1), 45. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2288-8-45
Varma, Y., Venkataramani, R., Kayal, P., & Maiti, M. (2021). Short-Term Impact Of COVID-19 on The Indian Stock Market. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(3), 120. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14030120
Wang, L., & Liu, Z. (2023). Monte Carlo Simulation in Capital Budgeting: A Comparative Review of Methods and Applications. Finance Research Letters, 55, 103832. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.103832
Zhao, H., Zhang, X., & Li, J. (2020). Decision-Making Under Deep Uncertainty: Application of Real Options in Project Evaluation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 161, 120267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120267
Zhang, Y., & Tan, W. (2022). Behavioral Biases and Capital Budgeting Decisions: Evidence from Emerging Markets. Emerging Markets Review, 51, 100887. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2022.100887
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Ade Sri Mulyani, Muhammad Yusuf, Yunike Berry, Etyca Rizky Yanti, eilanta Rantina, Tri Lestari
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
