Pengaruh Harga Nikel, PDB, Inflasi, Kurs, FDI Terhadap Harga Saham Perusahaan Tambang Nikel Menggunakan Larangan Ekspor Bijih Nikel Sebagai Moderasi Periode 2009 – 2023
Keywords:
Harga saham, Harga nikel, PDB, Inflasi, Kurs,FDI, Larangan ekspor bijih nikel, perusahaan tambang nikel, model regresi data Panel EGLS (Cross-section weights)
Abstract
Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menyelidiki pengaruh harga nikel,PDB, Inflasi, Kurs,FDI terhadap harga saham perusahaan tambang nikel menggunakan larangan ekspor bijih nikel sebagai moderasi. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan model regresi data Panel EGLS (Cross-section weights) untuk mengetahui pengaruh variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen secara parsial maupun simultan serta pengaruh interaksi varibel moderasi dengan variabel independen terhadap varibel dependen. Sampel yang diambil adalah perusahaan tambang nikel yang terdaftar di BEI selama periode 2009-2023. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara parsial harga nikel, interaksi PDB dengan larangan ekpor bijih nikel memiliki pengaruh signifikan positif terhadap harga saham. Sedangkan interaksi kurs tengah dengan larangan ekspor bijih nikel memiliki pengaruh signifikan negatif. Variabel independen lainya seperti PDB, Inflasi, Kurs dan FDI tidak berpengaruh signifikan. F-statistik 143,7439 dengan probabilitas yang sangat kecil (p-value = 0.000000) menunjukkan bahwa model regresi secara keseluruhan berpengaruh signifikan. Nilai 0,878625 dengan Adjusted : 0,872512 maka sekumpulan variabel independen mampu menjelaskan variabel dependen sebesar 87,25%. Hasil penelitian yang menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan harga nikel terhadap harga saham perusahaan tambang nikel dapat digunakan oleh pemerintah untuk memperkuat kebijakan hilirisasi, peningkatan market share Indonesia dalam perdagangan nikel internasional serta pengelolaan resiko mengurangi fluktuasi harga nikel. Investor juga dapat memahami bahwa harga nikel merupakan faktor utama yang mempengaruhi harga saham perusahaan tambang nikel dan menggunakan informasi ini untuk strategi investasi mereka. Perusahaan tambang nikel dapat menggunakan hasil penelitian ini untuk mengembangkan strategi operasional yang lebih baik. Penelitian ini menggunakan tiga variabel independen yang berbeda yaitu Inflasi, Kurs, FDI serta peiode dan sampel penelitian yang berbeda. Metode analisis adalah regresi data panel Fixed Effect Model cross section weight dengan robust coefficient covariance cross section SUR (PCSE).
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Ghozali, I. (2017). Analisis Multivariate dan Ekonometrika. Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro.
Grahita Chandrarin , Kazi Sohag , Diyah Sukanti Cahyaningsih , Dani Yuniawan, H. H. (2022). The response of exchange rate to coal price, palm oil price, and inflation in Indonesia: Tail dependence analysis. 77(August).
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Pagano, M., Panetta, F., & Zingales, L. (1998). Why do companies go public? An empirical analysis. Journal of Finance, 53(1), 27–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.25448
Park, J., & Lim, B. (2018). Testing efficiency of the london metal exchange: New evidence. International Journal of Financial Studies, 6(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6010032
Purnama, M. purnama, Hanitha, V., & Hendra, H. (2021). Effect of Gold Price, Nickel Price, Used Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and FTSE Malaysia KLCI on Sharia Share Price Index (Sharia Ida) on The Indonesia Stock Exchange in the Period of January 2020 - December 2020. ECo-Buss, 4(1), 29–45. https://doi.org/10.32877/eb.v4i1.211
Rahadian, R. I., & Ibadi, M. R. (2021). Impact of Accelerating the Export of Nickel Prohibition on Non-Tax Revenue and National Economy. Jurnal Anggaran Dan Keuangan Negara Indonesia (AKURASI), 3(1), 91–115. https://doi.org/10.33827/akurasi2021.vol3.iss1.art98
Romer, D. (2019). Advanced Macronomics. In McGraw Hill (Fifth Edit, Issue 493).
Ross, S. A. (1976). The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing. Journal of Economic Theory, 13(3), 341–360. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(76)90046-6
Serafeim, G., & Yoon, A. (2023). Stock price reactions to ESG news: the role of ESG ratings and disagreement. Review of Accounting Studies, 28(3), 1500–1530. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-022-09675-3
Setiawan, S. A. (2020). Does Macroeconomic Condition Matter for Stock Market? Evidence of Indonesia Stock Market Performance for 21 Years. The Indonesian Journal of Development Planning, 4(1), 27–39.
Shabbir, A., Kousar, S., & Batool, S. A. (2020). Impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market in Pakistan. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 25(50), 279–294. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-04-2019-0053
SMM, S. M. M. (2024). Explore the Factors that Influence the Movement of Nickel Prices. SMM, Shanghai Metal Market. https://news.metal.com/newscontent/102637577/Explore-the-Factors-that-Influence-the-Movement-of-Nickel-Prices
Statista. (2024). Mine production of nickel in Indonesia from 2010 to 2023. Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/260757/indonesian-mine-production-of-nickel-since-2006/
Sugiyanto, E. kusumaningtyas, Subagyo, E., Adinugroho, W. catur, Jacob, J., Berry, Y., Nuraini, A., Sudjono, & Syah, S. (2022). Konsep dan Praktik Ekonometrika Menggunakan Eviews. Academia Publication.
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2024-06-25
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